Background
In 2015, under Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), six countries lifted sanctions on Iran, which froze its nuclear programme. In 2018, United States (US) President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from JCPOA, re-imposing sanctions. Iran began stockpiling enriched uranium and suspended International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring. In 2019, President Trump announced his intention to designate Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as foreign terrorist organisation. Revolutionaries in Iran, particularly leader Ali Khameini and IRGC were not predisposed to reconciliation. Iran attacked Saudi, Emirati, Japanese and Norwegian oil tankers; conducted drone strikes on Saudi Arabian oil facilities and shot down a US drone. These actions confirmed to United States that until there is evolution in nature of regime, Iranian leaders will not abandon their proxy wars. Regime’s, “Death to Israel”, “Death to America” language is not mere bluster. Hostility towards US, Israel and West is foundational to Iran’s revolutionary ideology. Iran’s leaders deeply resent colonial and foreign powers who are seen in cause of Persian empires collapse. Iran’s proxy wars have grown more dangerous as they have expanded geographically. In 2019, Israel increased strikes in Lebanon, Gaza to disrupt Hezbollah and Hamas capabilities and leadership, while Iran continued to support them. Between 2015 and 2020, Iranian proxies in Yemen launched over 250 missiles into Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) and attempted attacks on ships in Bab-el-Mandeb. On 1st April 2023, Israel bombed Iranian consulate complex in Damascus, killing senior Iranian officials. In response, Iran and its Axis-of-Resistance allies seized Israeli-linked ship MSC Aries and launched strikes in Israel on 13th April. Israel retaliated with attacks in Iran and Syria on 19th April. On 1st October, Iran launched missiles at Israel. Israel retaliated on 26th October. Israel and US launched airstrikes against Iran in Twelve-Day War in June 2025, from 13th June to 24th June. Israel bombed military and nuclear facilities in Iran, assassinating prominent military leaders, nuclear scientists and politicians, killing civilians and destroying air defences. Iran retaliated with 550 ballistic missiles and over 1000 suicide drones, hitting civilian population centres, and twelve military, energy and government sites. War followed decades-long proxy conflict where Iran supported an Axis-of-Resistance. Iran’s development of nuclear enrichment capabilities has been an international controversy for decades. US intercepted Iranian attacks and bombed three Iranian Nuclear sites on 22nd June. Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US base in Qatar. Ceasefire was on 24th June.
Iran Protests and Massacres in January 2026
In January 2026, Iran perpetrated widespread massacres of thousands of protestors, deploying security forces and foreign militias to supress dissent and imposed internet shutdown as crackdown on protests. Khamenei acknowledged that ‘thousands of people” had been killed during protests, blaming Trump for massacre and calling protestors “rioters and terrorists” affiliated with US and Israel. Khamenei gave specific orders on 9th January 2026 to crush protests by any means necessary.
US, Israel, Iran War 2026
On 27th February 2026, Trump gave order to proceed with Operation Epic Fury. US missiles, drones, and Israeli fighter jets began striking Iran next day. On 28th February, US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, targeting key officials, military commanders and facilities. Israel codenamed operation as Operation Roaring Lion. Israeli Air Force struck 500 military targets in western and central Iran, including air defences, missile launchers and Iranian naval vessels, using 200 fighter jets. US strikes were carried out by planes based around Middle East and from aircraft carriers. Thousands of IRGC personnel were killed or wounded, as several military bases were attacked. Several strikes hit Tehran’s Pasteur Street district, where Ali Khamenei’s presidential palace is.
Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, including Minister of Defence Aziz Nasirzadeh, and head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Mohammad Pakpour were killed in strikes. Subsequent attacks damaged military bases, government facilities, and cultural heritage sites. Strikes were coupled with cyberattacks on Iranian infrastructure, media and phone apps, with messages calling on Iranians to rise against their government. Cyberattacks resulted in near-total internet blackout in Iran, with 60 hours of connectivity dropping to 1% of normal levels, disrupting government communications, state media and public services. At 2.30 a.m. EST, on 28th February 2026, Trump released an eight-minute video statement on Truth Social, saying that purpose of US strikes on Iran was regime change. He said that Iran’s activities endangered US and its allies, citing Iran hostage crises, support for proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, killings of protestors, Iran calling “Death to America”, and its history of attacking US civilians and soldiers as evidence of Iran’s intent against US. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and some countries condemned US-Israeli strikes. United Nations Security Council passed resolution condemning Iran’s retaliatory strikes at Gulf states. Critics of war have described attacks as illegal under US law and violation of Iran’s sovereignty under international law. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, both warned of potential threat of nuclear weapons in Iran and called on Iranians to overthrow their government. Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz labelled strikes as “pre-emptive attack” intended to remove threats to Israel. Iran codenamed its military response Operation True Promise IV, launching hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles at targets in Tel Aviv and Haifa as well as multiple countries in Persian Gulf region. Major targets included Manama, Kuwait International Airport, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, and Erbil International Airport and US Consulate General in Erbil, Iraq. Iran reported striking US bases - Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and Al Dhafra Air Base in UAE and US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. On 1st / 2nd March, Iran struck radar bases for US THAAD missile defence systems in Jordan, UAE and Saudi Arabia. Iran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, announced interim leadership council on 1st March and accused US and Israel of trying to dismantle Iran. Israel launched strikes against Iranian targets. Iran launched missiles and drones on Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE. Two oil tankers were targeted off coast of Oman. Shipping through Strait of Hormuz slowed down to standstill with around 150 freight ships, including many tankers stalled. On 1st March, Trump announced US had accepted Iranian proposal for further negotiations. However, Ali Larijani ruled out talks. On 2nd March, US embassy in Kuwait was struck. Two more tankers were struck. Senior IRGC official said he would set fire onto any ship coming through Strait of Hormuz, preventing oil leaving. Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial Areas, Qatar were struck by Iranian drones; Qatar shooting two Iranian SU-24 bombers. US and Israel attacked Natanz Nuclear Facility and damage to Khatam al-Anbia and Gandhi hospitals was reported. On 3rd March, US and Israeli strikes destroyed Supreme National Security Council headquarters in Tehran and Min Zaida underground nuclear weapon facility.
Fast Forward to third week of war
US conducted bombing raid on 13th March on Kharg Island, oil export hub off Persian Gulf coast of Iran, strikes targeted more than 90 Iranian military sites but spared oil and gas infrastructure. On 16th March, China and US-aligned NATO nations in Europe rejected Trump’s call to provide military support to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Trump rebuked NATO allies, calling their decision “very foolish mistake”. On 17th March, Trump stated on Truth Social renouncing NATO’s assistance, and US allies in Indo-Pacific - Japan, South Korea and Australia for refusing to join US-led attacks on Iran during war. Trump declared that US “does need help of anyone” regarding the war. On 13th March, to help deal with economic costs of war, US temporarily lifted restrictions on sale of Russian oil. Iran announced coordinated offensive by IRGC Navy, Iranian Army and Hezbollah against Israel and US bases. Iran targeted Gulf countries with missiles and drones, causing oil prices to rise. Bahrain reported attacks on fuel tanks. Kuwait authorities stated that defence equipment and Kuwait’s main international airport were attacked. Container ship was attacked 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali in UAE. On 17th March some senior Iranian officials, including Ali Larijani and Basij chief Ghomreza Soleimani were targeted by Israeli airstrikes. Iran responded with missile barrage in Ramat Gan. On 18th March, Israel struck South Pars natural gas field in Persian Gulf and neighbouring refineries in Iran with US coordination. Iran attacked world’s largest LNG production facility in Qatar.
Closure of Strait of Hormuz
On 2nd March, IRGC confirmed that Strait of Hormuz was closed and that any ship that entered the Strait was to be set on fire. On 3rd March, Donald Trump stated that US Navy may escort oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz. On 12th March, three cargo vessels were hit in Strait of Hormuz where Iran had deployed about dozen mines, halting exports of oil and LNG. On 15th March, President Trump asked several nations – China, France, Japan, South Korea, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia to send warships and assist in securing Strait of Hormuz. Trump, noting that these nations are beneficiaries of shipping route, pressured NATO and allies to help secure it. Most nations refused to assist as they want diplomatic de-escalation not war. Trump warned that planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping may be at risk if China does not assist US in securing Strait of Hormuz. Trump emphasised that China which relies on Strait for 90% of its energy imports, should share responsibility of keeping it open, than leaving it solely to US to secure. Iran remained determined to assert control over Strait of Hormuz. Houthi movement in Yemen warned that it would respond to any escalation against Iran, including efforts to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Trump issued ultimatum to Iran, threatening to strike its power plants unless it opened Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran threatened to “completely” close Strait of Hormuz and strike vital infrastructure like energy and desalination facilities. Halfway through deadline, Trump announced that he was postponing strikes against Iranian power plants for five days and said US was negotiating with Iran to end war. Iran denied talks were taking place rejecting 15-point peace plan.
Fast forward to Fourth week of War
On 27th March, Iranian missile and drone strike on Prince Sultan Air Base damaged several US refuelling aircraft and injured 29 US soldiers. Iran showed no signs of ceding its control over Strait of Hormuz. Iran blocked two Chinese ships from entering the strait and sought to formalise fees for ships passing through it. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly vowed to “intensify and expand” Israeli attacks in Iran. Shahid Khondab Heavy Water Complex in Arak, used to test uranium enrichment was damaged in Israeli airstrikes. 2500 US marines arrived in Middle East, to be part of effort to open Strait of Hormuz. On 28th March, joint US-Israeli airstrikes damaged residential and civilian facilities, including Iran University of Science and Technology. Iran responded, threatening to attack Israeli and American colleges across Middle East. On 29th March, Joint US – Israeli strikes bombed Bandar Khamir in south Iran. Iranian missile struck chemical plant in Ne’ot Hovav, causing fears of hazardous leak. On 30th March, Trump said on Truth Social that if a deal was not reached soon and Strait of Hormuz not reopened, US would destroy Iran's power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and its desalination plants to conclude the war. Trump laid out objectives for US such as, stop Iran’s nuclear program, destroy Iran’s offensive missiles, destroy Iran’s navy and other security infrastructure, stop Tehran’s support for proxy forces, and regime change in Tehran. To achieve this US and Israel killed Iranian leaders and bombed Iran’s military forces and infrastructure. Israel’s objective was regime change. Iran’s objective was regime survival. To increase pressure on US, Iran attacked US allies in Gulf and shut down traffic through Strait of Hormuz. Effects of these strikes are real but fall short of achieving US goal of regime change. Iran’s attacks on US Gulf allies have killed people, damaged major industrial and energy sites and hurt their image as oasis of calm in turbulent region. Iran choked off traffic in Strait of Hormuz, leading to dramatic increases in oil, gas prices as well as fertilizers impacting whole world, devastating economies, impacting global food security and pushing world economy into recession
Two-week Cease-fire agreement
US President Trump on 7th April 2026 announced two-week suspension of planned military strikes on Iran, linking move to Iran’s willingness to reopen Strait of Hormuz and engage in negotiations. Temporary halt to missile strikes and drone attacks between US and Iran, has offered narrow window for diplomacy, but there is little indication yet that conflict has fully subsided. The decision came after serious escalation in rhetoric earlier in the day by Trump, threatening to destroy entire civilization vis-à-vis Iran. Israel is part of cease-fire agreement and will halt bombing targets in Iran as negotiations take place over next 14 days. Diplomatic breakthrough was achieved after Trump administration agreed to negotiate on 10-point proposal put forward by Tehran : Non-aggression pact between US and Iran, Continuation of Iran’s control over Strait of Hormuz, Recognition of Iran’s nuclear enrichment rights, Lifting of all primary US sanctions, Lifting of all secondary sanctions
Termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency Board resolution, Payment of compensation to Iran for damages, Withdrawal of US forces from the region, Cessation of war everywhere, Ceasefire linked to Hormuz reopening. Trump said that US had achieved its military objectives and that both sides were close to broader agreement. Iranian leadership agreed to temporary ceasefire window and proposed comprehensive framework for ending conflict, stating that any halt in military operations depends on cessation of attacks against it. Arrangements announced by US is limited to two-week period and is designed as pause, rather than resolution. Trump described it as “double-sided ceasefire”. Iran’s supreme national security council also clarified that move does not signify termination of war, reinforcing that this is tactical halt aimed at enabling negotiations rather than ending hostilities altogether. Trump has made its “complete, immediate and safe” reopening of Strait of Hormuz pre-condition for suspending strikes. Iran has agreed in principle but with caveats, stating that safe passage will be allowed only through coordination with its armed forces. Iran has agreed to open Strait during ceasefire for commercial shipping. Iran has not declared unconditional halt to military operations. Formal talks are expected during two-week window. Iranian authorities have confirmed their participation, signalling their willingness to engage diplomatically after weeks of military escalation. Iran’s 10-point peace framework proposal goes beyond temporary truce and calls for comprehensive end to conflict. Trump described Iran’s proposal as “workable basis” for final agreement. Israel supports US-led ceasefire, though clarified that it does not apply to conflict in Lebanon.
Ceasefire leaves intact critical concerns such as Iran’s nuclear stockpile, long-standing geopolitical tensions and broader balance of power in Middle East. US Iran ceasefire represents significant de-escalation, but not end to conflict. Next two weeks of negotiations will be crucial in determining whether this pause can evolve into durable agreement or whether it remains brief interruption in ongoing war. Coming fortnight is expected to test whether diplomacy can succeed where military pressure failed
The evolving confrontation in West Asia represents one of the most intricate and consequential theatres in contemporary international relations. Deeply rooted in ideological divergences, sectarian complexities and enduring security dilemmas, the conflict has transcended bilateral rivalries to emerge as a multidimensional strategic contest involving regional coalitions, proxy engagements, and calibrated interventions of major global powers. The developments in West Asia over past more than 40 days have not only altered immediate security landscape but have also triggered cascading consequences across global trade system, energy markets and strategic alignments. What initially appeared to be contained escalation has evolved into a multi-layered regional crisis, drawing in state and non-state actors, raising serious concerns about resilience of existing diplomatic frameworks. From economic standpoint implications are already visible. Critical maritime corridors – particularly those linked to Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, have experienced heightened risk perceptions, such as, increased insurance premiums and freight costs, disruptions in energy supply chains and volatility in global oil and gas markets. At geopolitical level, crisis has underscored fragility of emerging multipolar order. Traditional alliances are being tested, while new alignments are forming in real-time. The role of external powers – whether in deterrence, meditation or strategic signalling has become central to trajectory of conflict. We need not only to analyse events but interrogate their broader implications:
• How will instability in West Asia reshape global trade routes and economic corridors?
• Effects on energy markets and emerging economies
• Are we witnessing structural shift in regional geopolitics?
• What role can middle powers like India play in stabilisation, mediation and strategic balancing?Beyond immediate crisis management, with forward-looking approach, we must consider:
• Future of multilateral diplomacy in conflict resolution• Resilience of global supply chains in conflict prone regions.
• Recalibration of national security strategies in era of hybrid and noncarbonated threats
Recent meeting in Islamabad between US and Iran reflects an attempt to create diplomatic pathway towards these collections. Effectiveness of such initiatives will depend upon:
• Inclusivity of stakeholders
• Credibility of guarantees offered
• Willingness of key actors to move beyond maximalist positions.
The apparent failure or at best, inconclusive outcome of recent Islamabad talks between US and Iran marks critical inflection point in ongoing West Asia crisis. It reflects limits of ad-hoc diplomacy in conflict that is no longer bilateral or even regional. It signals deeper structural factors in current geopolitical order. Breakdown of talks is likely to accelerate strategic hardening among key actors.
• Prolonged uncertainty in fragile trade systems.
• Continuing insecurity around Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz will keep shipping costs and insurance premiums elevated.
• Energy markets may remain structurally volatile.
• Shift conflict into less visible but equally disruptive domains
Islamabad process has demonstrated that episodic diplomacy is insufficient. What is required is institutionalised dialogue framework and clearly defined confidence building measures, and engagement of both state and non-state stakeholders. Failure of Islamabad talks is not merely missed diplomatic opportunity. It is signal that conflict is entering more protracted and complex phase. The key question before us is not whether escalation risks exist – they clearly do – but whether international community and regional stakeholders can adapt quickly enough to manage crisis that is evolving faster than mechanisms designed to contain it. The complexity of situation demands not just analysis, but clarity of thought, and appropriate actions
For India, a nation with historically balanced and multidimensional engagements across West Asia, these developments carry far reaching implications that extend beyond diplomacy into domains of energy security, economic resilience, national security and strategic autonomy. As India has continuously advocated earlier, de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy are essential to bring early end to ongoing conflict.
to India’s Digital Diplomacy, with well-planned research on the topic. Their views will surely help in instilling the subjects and topics under discussion in minds of readers.
